US election

[busker]

What are the odds that the republicans defy expectations and win?

[dukealien]

What are the odds that the republicans defy expectations and win?

Interesting question.  The first qualification would be, whose expectations - and how do we separate expectations from hopes in this age where Pilate's "What is Truth?" would get only a horse laugh?

I think that, since the Right is pretty inert, it's a matter of how far the Left will press "The worse, the better."  In France, turning the school grievances into a full banlieu-et-boulevardiers riot-fest is likely to get Le Pen elected; in the US ("here" for me) the anti-Israel craziness is putting many voters off the Left.  Not those who answer polls (I don't) but those who always get out and vote.  Angrily.  The Left calls those who oppose it "reactionaries."  Truth, for once.

[CRNDLSM]

What are the odds that the republicans defy expectations and win?

Interesting question.  The first qualification would be, whose expectations - and how do we separate expectations from hopes in this age where Pilate's "What is Truth?" would get only a horse laugh? Genuine

I think that, since the Right is pretty inert, it's a matter of how far the Left will press "The worse, the better." 
Left and right are major factors in these identity wars, my algorithm will show me the same news story with two different spins on it at least
In France, turning the school grievances into a full banlieu-et-boulevardiers riot-fest is likely to get Le Pen elected; in the US ("here" for me) the anti-Israel craziness is putting many voters off the Left.  
My feed shows 'the left' being very anti-Israel in that they post 'free palestine' on everything, they show me that trump and Netanyahu are the same and that being anti-zionist isnt anti-israel
Not those who answer polls (I don't) but those who always get out and vote.  Angrily.  The Left calls those who oppose it "reactionaries."  Truth, for once. Ive never heard the term reactionary from 'the left' i just see 'the left' being called radicals.  Anarchy used to be the farthest right you can get, everyone is to the left of someone else.

Im only defending the left here because the right seems to hold the power.  I also get a lot of 'voting for democrats is voting for islam'  like really people???

[rowens]

When there's no holy room at home, we import wars from overseas.

[RiverNotch]

What are the odds that the republicans defy expectations and win?

Interesting question.  The first qualification would be, whose expectations - and how do we separate expectations from hopes in this age where Pilate's "What is Truth?" would get only a horse laugh? Genuine

I think that, since the Right is pretty inert, it's a matter of how far the Left will press "The worse, the better." 
Left and right are major factors in these identity wars, my algorithm will show me the same news story with two different spins on it at least
In France, turning the school grievances into a full banlieu-et-boulevardiers riot-fest is likely to get Le Pen elected; in the US ("here" for me) the anti-Israel craziness is putting many voters off the Left.  
My feed shows 'the left' being very anti-Israel in that they post 'free palestine' on everything, they show me that trump and Netanyahu are the same and that being anti-zionist isnt anti-israel
Not those who answer polls (I don't) but those who always get out and vote.  Angrily.  The Left calls those who oppose it "reactionaries."  Truth, for once. Ive never heard the term reactionary from 'the left' i just see 'the left' being called radicals.  Anarchy used to be the farthest right you can get, everyone is to the left of someone else.

Im only defending the left here because the right seems to hold the power.  I also get a lot of 'voting for democrats is voting for islam'  like really people???

I try not to bother defending the left online, because the only people who would disparage "the left" as such are barely worth talking to, in my experience.

[dukealien]

Well, there are several ways to define "the Left."  One is, anyone who identifies his opponents as "the Right."  Another is, anyone who denies that there's such a thing as "the Left." 

Back to the original question, at least indirectly.  Many professional commentators/political scientists claim that, historically, the Right (Trump and the Republicans) is at a disadvantage in the US this year because it's the mid-term election after a presidential election they won.  Like most arguments from history (as both Left and Right would agree) this has some merit.

The Left's problem is that - contrary to what Right-wing commentators claim - it has no command-control network (only a constantly changing vibe, but that's just my metaphor).  When all those professionals call on the Left to hang back, act responsible, and hide their flames under a bushel because it's theirs to lose this year, historically, actors on the Left are incapable of listening, much less obeying the advice.  Tell them to lay low - they call for death and imprisonment to their opponents; they hijack airplanes; they set off bombs; they burn cars and get themselves shot in stupid ways.  They hijack, ferchrisakes, memorial services.  It's not stupidity or even rebellion against the professionals (e.g. Democrat Party leadership), it's that in the actual activist Left merit comes from riding and pushing the vibe.  As one leader in the French Revolution put it, my people are running through the streets, I must get in front to lead them!

The consequence of which is that there are constant pop-up explosions from the Left which are beyond, even against, its control and best political interests.  If there are enough of those, or serious enough, the Right takes it.  The formal Left leadership's only defense against this is sympathetic media which will hide and censor news of the explosions... but it's not 2020 anymore.  The filters are torn, the bubbles are broken.  Anything can happen.  And when it does, the reaction can't be suppressed.