US election

[dukealien]

What are the odds that the republicans defy expectations and win?

Interesting question.  The first qualification would be, whose expectations - and how do we separate expectations from hopes in this age where Pilate's "What is Truth?" would get only a horse laugh?

I think that, since the Right is pretty inert, it's a matter of how far the Left will press "The worse, the better."  In France, turning the school grievances into a full banlieu-et-boulevardiers riot-fest is likely to get Le Pen elected; in the US ("here" for me) the anti-Israel craziness is putting many voters off the Left.  Not those who answer polls (I don't) but those who always get out and vote.  Angrily.  The Left calls those who oppose it "reactionaries."  Truth, for once.