US election

[RiverNotch]

What are the odds that the republicans defy expectations and win?

Interesting question.  The first qualification would be, whose expectations - and how do we separate expectations from hopes in this age where Pilate's "What is Truth?" would get only a horse laugh? Genuine

I think that, since the Right is pretty inert, it's a matter of how far the Left will press "The worse, the better." 
Left and right are major factors in these identity wars, my algorithm will show me the same news story with two different spins on it at least
In France, turning the school grievances into a full banlieu-et-boulevardiers riot-fest is likely to get Le Pen elected; in the US ("here" for me) the anti-Israel craziness is putting many voters off the Left.  
My feed shows 'the left' being very anti-Israel in that they post 'free palestine' on everything, they show me that trump and Netanyahu are the same and that being anti-zionist isnt anti-israel
Not those who answer polls (I don't) but those who always get out and vote.  Angrily.  The Left calls those who oppose it "reactionaries."  Truth, for once. Ive never heard the term reactionary from 'the left' i just see 'the left' being called radicals.  Anarchy used to be the farthest right you can get, everyone is to the left of someone else.

Im only defending the left here because the right seems to hold the power.  I also get a lot of 'voting for democrats is voting for islam'  like really people???

I try not to bother defending the left online, because the only people who would disparage "the left" as such are barely worth talking to, in my experience.